📉 Market Outlook

Gold remains in a bearish trend on the H1 timeframe after falling toward the $4,080 area. Price has still been unable to recover and hold above key resistance levels, indicating that sellers continue to control the market.

Although intermittent buying has emerged due to uncertainty surrounding the global economy, the current recovery remains only a short-term rebound. Unless price can shift the market structure and form a Higher High, the broader outlook will remain bearish.

➡️ The primary strategy remains Sell on Rally.

🌍 Global Market Update

🇺🇸 Donald Trump continues to advance his America First agenda through increased trade pressure, proposed import tariffs, and negotiations with major trading partners.

These developments have kept investors concerned about the global economic outlook and the possibility of renewed trade-war risks.

⚔️ Meanwhile, conditions in the Middle East remain fragile. Although tensions between the United States and Iran have eased, geopolitical risks have not disappeared entirely.

As a result, gold continues to receive intermittent support from Safe-Haven demand.

🏦 Investors are also closely monitoring developments surrounding the Federal Reserve, particularly as Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver speeches on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings.

The market is expected to analyse his remarks carefully for clues regarding inflation, the interest-rate outlook, and the broader direction of the US economy.

➡️ If Warsh signals that interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period—a Hawkish stance—the US dollar could strengthen and place downward pressure on gold.

However, if his remarks are more accommodative or Dovish, they could support a rebound in gold prices.

🔴 Resistance Levels (H1)

$4,120
$4,180
$4,250

🟢 Support Levels (H1)

$4,030
$3,980
$3,900

🎯 Weekly Trading Outlook

📌 If price fails to break above $4,120, renewed selling pressure may push gold lower.

📌 A break below $4,030 could trigger further downside toward $3,980 and $3,900.

📌 If price can reclaim and hold above $4,180, gold may extend its rebound toward $4,250.

⚠️ The key events of the week are Kevin Warsh’s speeches on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings, as well as any new signals from the Trump administration regarding trade policy.

These developments could determine the short-term direction of both the US dollar and gold prices.

➡️ Overall, the market outlook continues to favour Sell on Rally, although traders should remain cautious of increased volatility caused by Federal Reserve commentary and announcements from the US government.